By Bamidele Atoyebi

Nigerian politics has a long memory when it comes to the pursuit of power, but a surprisingly short one when it comes to gratitude. Politicians remember who denied them a ticket, who blocked their ambition and who stood in their way. Yet, when they finally attain power, some conveniently forget those who gave them a platform, defended their interests or helped make their ambitions possible.

The events in Kaduna on Saturday, October 24, 2026, offer a timely reminder that political relationships cannot be built on ambition alone. At the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential campaign flag-off, Vice-President Kashim Shettima made a direct appeal to northern voters to support President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election bid, arguing that the President had stood by northern political figures, including former President Muhammadu Buhari, and deserved reciprocal support.

That appeal touches on a fundamental principle of political life: reciprocity.

My earlier argument that the burden of delivering President Tinubu a second term rests significantly on the North has found fresh relevance in the Kaduna gathering. The scale of mobilisation, the presence of political leaders and the message delivered from the campaign platform suggest that influential northern stakeholders understand the importance of the relationship between Tinubu’s political past and his current re-election ambition.

However, the real test is not the crowd that gathered in Kaduna. It is whether the political commitments expressed on the campaign ground will translate into sustained mobilisation, credible political alliances and votes when Nigerians head to the polls.

For political elites, the question is straightforward: what does loyalty mean when the person who once supported your ambition needs your support in return?

Tinubu’s political investment in the North

President Tinubu’s political history offers a useful starting point for understanding this argument. His rise to the presidency was not by sudden flight. It followed decades of political organisation, strategic alliances, party-building and calculated compromises.

One of the clearest examples of his willingness to invest in political relationships was his support for Muhammadu Buhari and the coalition-building that culminated in the APC’s formation.

In 2013, the Action Congress of Nigeria, the Congress for Progressive Change, the All Nigeria Peoples Party and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance came together to form the APC, creating a formidable opposition platform ahead of the 2015 elections. Tinubu was a key figure in the coalition, while Buhari brought a substantial political following, particularly in northern Nigeria.

In 2015, Buhari won the presidential election on the APC platform, defeating the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan. It was the first time in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic that an incumbent president was defeated at the polls.

Tinubu’s role in the opposition coalition was part of a broader political calculation that brought together different interests, regional constituencies and ambitions under one party.

The relationship between Tinubu and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar also illustrates the complexities of political alliances. Following Atiku’s departure from the Peoples Democratic Party in 2006, he contested the 2007 presidential election on the Action Congress platform. Tinubu later publicly maintained that his party had provided Atiku with a platform after his fallout with the PDP leadership, although the two politicians have offered conflicting accounts on aspects of their relationship.

These episodes demonstrate that political platforms, alliances and endorsements can significantly influence a politician’s opportunities. They also explain why the question of reciprocity has become part of the argument for Tinubu’s second term.

But political support is not a blank cheque. Its value depends on the relationship, the interests involved and the willingness of the parties to sustain their commitments.

The North and the politics of reciprocity

The argument being advanced by Tinubu’s supporters in the North is that the President should not be abandoned by political actors whose ambitions he previously supported.

It is a compelling argument within the logic of elite politics. Political figures who understand the value of alliances recognise that today’s support can shape tomorrow’s opportunities. Those who consistently stand by their allies can build relationships that outlive individual elections.

Northern political leaders, including governors, legislators, party officials and aspiring presidential candidates, must therefore consider the long-term implications of their decisions.

Many of them understand that presidential ambition requires more than personal popularity. It requires a political platform, a national coalition, relationships across geopolitical zones, party structures and the confidence of influential stakeholders. A politician who benefits from these structures but refuses to acknowledge the relationships that made them possible risks weakening the very network upon which future ambitions depend.

This is particularly relevant as the 2027 presidential election approaches. Some northern politicians may see the contest as an opportunity to strengthen their own future presidential ambitions. Others may believe that supporting Tinubu now could improve their prospects when the presidency rotates to a candidate from their region.

Whatever their calculations, they must recognise that political relationships are built over time. A decision that offers an immediate advantage can carry consequences for years.

Nevertheless, it would be a mistake to assume that the entire North speaks with one voice or that the presence of northern leaders at a campaign rally guarantees the votes of ordinary citizens. Northern Nigeria is politically diverse, and voters will make decisions based on their interests, experiences, party loyalties and assessments of the candidates.

The task before the APC is therefore to convert elite endorsements into a broader political case that resonates with the electorate.

Popularity is not the same as a winning strategy

One recurring mistake among Nigerian politicians is the belief that popularity in a particular region automatically translates into a sure path to the presidency.

The experiences of successive presidential contests suggest otherwise. National elections require a coalition capable of reaching beyond a politician’s strongest geographical base. Personal appeal matters, but so do party organisation, electoral arithmetic, alliances and the capacity to mobilise support across regions.

Muhammadu Buhari’s eventual victory in 2015 illustrates this point. After unsuccessful presidential bids in 2003, 2007 and 2011, he became the APC’s candidate in 2015 following the merger of opposition forces. His widespread support in the North was important, but the coalition also had to assemble support across other parts of the country.

Similarly, Peter Obi’s strong performance in the South-East and other areas in 2023 demonstrated the electoral significance of his support base, but regional popularity alone was insufficient to secure the presidency.

The lesson is not that popularity is unimportant. It is that popularity must be coalesce into a national electoral strategy.

Tinubu himself spent years building political networks and negotiating alliances before becoming president. His political journey demonstrates the value of patience, organisation and an understanding of how different interests can be brought together.

For politicians who aspire to succeed him, the lesson should be clear: ambition without strategic relationships is a fragile foundation for power.

The danger of premature ambition

There is another lesson Nigerian political elites must learn. Not every contest must be fought immediately, and not every available opportunity must be seized simply because it exists.

Political impatience has damaged relationships, weakened parties and divided alliances that could otherwise have produced stronger outcomes. Politicians sometimes begin positioning themselves for offices they have not yet been formally offered, publicly challenge their political benefactors or interpret every disagreement as a signal to launch a new campaign for power.

The consequences can be costly.

The political careers of Bukola Saraki and Seyi Makinde, among others, demonstrate that political fortunes are shaped by changing alliances, party structures and disagreements over the distribution of power. Their experiences are different, and neither should be reduced to a simple story of ingratitude. Yet both illustrate the difficulty of balancing personal ambition with party loyalty and competing political interests.

The same caution applies to internal disagreements within the APC. Speculation about succession, the next presidential ticket and the future of influential officeholders can create unnecessary tension long before due time.

Where an incumbent has invested political capital in building a working relationship with an ally, any attempt to undermine that relationship should be weighed against the possible consequences. At the same time, no officeholder is entitled to automatic succession, and no political leader should be expected to surrender legitimate ambitions indefinitely.

The distinction is between ambition pursued with strategic patience and ambition pursued at the expense of every relationship that made political advancement possible.

Political maturity requires knowing when to compete, when to negotiate and when to wait.

Reciprocity is not political slavery

It is important to draw a line between repaying political favours and surrendering democratic judgement.

No president owns the votes of a region. No governor owns the votes of a state, and no political benefactor can legitimately demand permanent obedience from those he once supported. In a democracy, citizens retain the right to evaluate their leaders and choose their preferred candidates.

The argument for reciprocity should therefore be directed principally at political elites who have benefited from alliances and endorsements, not used to silence citizens who have legitimate grievances about economic hardship, insecurity, unemployment or public services.

President Tinubu’s re-election prospects will ultimately depend on more than the goodwill of political leaders. His administration must convince Nigerians that its policies are improving their lives and that the sacrifices associated with its economic reforms will produce tangible and broad-based benefits.

The opposition, in turn, has every right to challenge the administration and present an alternative programme. Political competition is not ingratitude, just as political loyalty is not proof of good governance.

The strongest argument for Tinubu’s second term is one that combines the history of political alliances with a convincing account of what his administration has achieved, what remains unfinished and what Nigerians can reasonably expect over another four years.

Reciprocity may strengthen a political coalition, but performance must sustain it.

The burden of political memory

The Kaduna rally has placed a question before northern political elites: will they treat their relationship with Tinubu as a temporary arrangement or as a long-term political partnership?

For those who believe the President deserves another term because of his past support for northern leaders, the next step is to demonstrate that commitment through organised, lawful and sustained political engagement. Statements of solidarity are a beginning, not the conclusion of the process.

For Tinubu, the challenge is equally significant. Political relationships require mutual confidence. Those who support a leader must have reason to believe that their cooperation will be recognised, their legitimate interests considered and their constituencies treated fairly.

Ultimately, successful political alliances cannot rest on one-sided expectations. They require trust, negotiation, shared objectives and an understanding that today’s beneficiary may become tomorrow’s benefactor.

Nigeria’s political class must learn this lesson before the next round of succession battles begin. A politician who forgets every hand that helped him climb the ladder may discover that the same ladder is no longer available when his own turn comes.

The North has been asked to remember Tinubu’s political investments. Whether northern political leaders and voters respond as his supporters hope remains to be seen. What is already clear is that the 2027 contest will test the strength of the alliances that brought the President to power, as well as his ability to persuade Nigerians that his administration deserves another mandate.

In politics, favours may not guarantee returns but the ability to build, honour and sustain relationships remains one of the most valuable assets a leader can possess.

Comrade Bamidele Atoyebi is the Convener of the Bola Ahmed Tinubu Ideological, National Coordinator of Accountability and Policy Monitoring PR and a Publisher of Unfiltered and Mining reports.