Nigeria's oil output rose in March, but the country is still struggling to meet its production target under the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, underlining persistent weaknesses in Africa's biggest oil industry.

OPEC's latest monthly report showed Nigeria produced 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, up from 1.31 million bpd in February. The increase suggests a gradual rebound after earlier disruptions linked to maintenance and operational issues.

But the recovery is still not enough. Output remained about 117,000 bpd below Nigeria's 1.5 million bpd quota, extending a streak of underperformance that has weighed on government revenues and investor confidence.

Alternative estimates tell a slightly different story. Secondary sources used by OPEC put Nigeria's production higher at 1.46 million bpd, pointing to a faster recovery. Meanwhile, domestic regulators and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited have reported even stronger figures in recent weeks, with total output, including condensates, nearing 1.7 to 1.8 million bpd.

The discrepancy shows a long-standing issue: Nigeria counts condensates in its domestic figures, while OPEC focuses strictly on crude oil.

That gap often creates conflicting narratives about the country's true production performance.

Despite missing its quota, Nigeria retained its position as Africa's top oil producer, ahead of Algeria and Libya.

For much of 2025 and into 2026, Nigeria has struggled to consistently meet its OPEC target due to oil theft, pipeline vandalism, ageing infrastructure, and delayed investments.

These challenges have made output volatile, complicating fiscal planning in a country where oil still accounts for the bulk of export earnings.

The impact is already visible. Lower crude output reduces dollar inflows at a time when Nigeria is trying to stabilise its currency and fund an ambitious budget benchmarked on higher production levels. It is also tightening crude supply to domestic refineries, including the privately owned Dangote Refinery, which has had to look beyond local supply to sustain operations.

Globally, the timing matters. OPEC's total output stood at about 35 million bpd in March as the group continues to manage supply amid shifting demand and geopolitical tensions. For Nigeria, failing to fully utilise its quota in such a market means leaving potential revenue on the table.

There are signs of improvement. Industry officials say production began to recover towards the end of March after key assets returned from maintenance. But sustaining that momentum will depend on Nigeria's ability to secure pipelines, attract investment, and improve operational efficiency—long-standing issues that have repeatedly slowed the sector.

For now, Nigeria is producing more oil. Just not enough to meet expectations.