Nigeria’s total crude oil production, including condensates, declined by 1.9 per cent month-on-month to 1.69 million barrels per day (mbpd) in October 2026, down from 1.72 mbpd in September, according to data shared by ThinkAfrica on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.

The figure covers total hydrocarbon liquids and is closely watched by analysts tracking Nigeria’s compliance with OPEC production quotas and its fiscal revenue outlook. The data did not provide reasons for the decline.

The October drop follows a period of relative stability in Nigeria’s oil output, which had been recovering from lows recorded in 2023 and 2024. The country has been working to meet its OPEC quota of 1.5 mbpd, a target it first achieved in May 2026. Production has fluctuated in recent months, with September’s 1.72 mbpd representing a recent high.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) typically publishes monthly production data, but the October figures had not been officially released as of the time of this report. ThinkAfrica’s data is consistent with market tracking of Nigeria’s export loadings and upstream activity.

Nigeria’s oil sector remains the backbone of government revenue and foreign exchange earnings, despite efforts to diversify the economy. Output disruptions — whether from pipeline vandalism, oil theft, maintenance or operational issues — directly affect the country’s fiscal position and its ability to meet OPEC commitments.

The 1.9 per cent decline is modest in absolute terms (approximately 30,000 bpd), but it underscores the fragility of recent production gains. Analysts will be watching November figures to see whether the drop is a temporary fluctuation or the start of a downward trend.

The NUPRC is expected to release its official October production report in the coming weeks.