Questions have emerged over Nigeria’s mineral revenue transparency after a report by Middle Belt Times alleged discrepancies between Chinese lithium import figures and publicly available Nigerian production and royalty records.

In an article published on October 26, journalist Biliyaminu Suraj cited Chinese customs data compiled by Shanghai Metals Market and Mysteel, estimating that China imported approximately 450,000 tonnes of Nigerian spodumene in 2024 and 1.2 million tonnes in 2025. Spodumene is a mineral used to produce lithium.

Using an estimated royalty rate of ₦9,500 per tonne, the report calculated potential government royalties of approximately ₦4.3 billion for 2024 and ₦11.4 billion for 2025. It projected that the potential liability for 2026 could exceed ₦11 billion if export volumes remained comparable.

The author estimated that potential lithium royalties for 2024–2026 could total about ₦25 billion. However, these figures are calculations based on reported import volumes and an assumed applicable rate; they do not establish the amount actually owed, unpaid or received by the Nigerian government.

The report criticised the Ministry of Solid Minerals Development and the Mining Cadastral Office for not publishing sufficiently detailed, operator-level production and royalty records to reconcile the reported exports with government revenue.

It questioned whether mining companies paid the relevant royalties and, if so, whether the payments reached the appropriate government accounts.

Nigeria’s royalty collection arrangements also changed in 2026. The Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) assumed responsibility for collecting mining royalties under the new tax framework, while the ministry retained its technical and regulatory oversight of the sector.

The transfer makes it important to distinguish payments made before January 2026 from those due under the new collection arrangements.

The allegations also raise broader questions about gold exports to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where discrepancies between Nigerian export records and UAE import data have previously attracted scrutiny.

A report by TheCable, drawing on UAE government statements and international trade data, found that the UAE reported importing approximately $489 million worth of gold from Nigeria in 2022, despite Nigeria’s official trade statistics recording no corresponding gold exports to the UAE that year.

That discrepancy highlights the need for authorities to reconcile cross-border trade records, establish whether exports followed Nigerian regulations and disclose the associated royalty payments.

However, the lithium figures do not independently establish that gold royalties remain unpaid, and the available material does not provide a verified calculation of outstanding gold royalties for the period under discussion.

The key question is whether the government can publish records reconciling mineral production, exports, royalty assessments and payments received.

The Ministry of Solid Minerals Development, the NRS and the relevant mining operators would need to provide documentary evidence to establish whether the estimated liabilities correspond to actual unpaid revenue.

Until those records are available, the reported figures should be treated as estimates requiring official verification, rather than proof that ₦25 billion in lithium royalties has gone missing.

The central question remains: how much royalty revenue did Nigeria assess, how much did it collect, and can the government account for the difference?