Coal miners are poised to benefit from a rising coal price as a result of the Iran war, says Bloomberg Intelligence.

Analysts at the market research firm say if the Iran war disrupts liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies for several more weeks, coal prices could rise to between $165/t and $185/t.

Even at a $135/t spot price, Glencore's earnings for the year would gain 10% from thermal coal and 12% from other commodities, while Yancoal and New Hope's earnings could rise about 60% before fuel hikes.

Bloomberg Intelligence says thermal coal prices are, however, unlikely to respond to the current LNG disruption in the same way as in 2022 when coal rallied alongside gas as both markets faced simultaneous supply shocks – including sanctions on Russian coal and weather-related disruption in Australia.

“The scope for additional gas-to-coal switching is also more limited. European coal capacity has declined since 2022, while North Asian utilities are constrained by existing LNG contract structures and operational limits on coal plants.

Additionally, many Asian power systems already rely heavily on coal. The conditions that drove the extraordinary coal rally in 2022 are largely absent,” explains Bloomberg Intelligence senior industry analyst Alon Olsha.

Sustained LNG tightness can nonetheless push coal to higher price levels. Using typical efficiencies, Olsha says LNG prices can be translated into an implied "coal parity" price – the level at which gas and coal generation costs are equal.

In practice, coal rarely trades all the way to this parity because switching capacity is limited by plant availability, contracts and policy constraints.

Olsha says a more realistic approach is, therefore, to assume coal captures only part of the parity gap.

“The LNG disruption would likely need to persist for at least several weeks, and probably around one to two months, before coal demand responds meaningfully."

The Iran conflict has already boosted the Newcastle coal price by 20% as higher LNG prices accelerate fuel switching by Asian power utilities.

Bloomberg Intelligence projects that if spot Newcastle prices hold at about $134/t, New Hope and Yancoal's 12-month forward consensus earnings has about 60% upside, giving them maximum leverage in the coal peer group.

For Glencore, spot commodity prices could lift earnings by 21%, with almost half coming from thermal coal.

Energy trading would likely boost earnings further, with scope to monetise dislocations in crude, LNG and coal, as seen during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg Intelligence says the coal freight spike is not yet reflected in export shipments.

High-frequency shipment data have yet to show a clear pickup in physical coal flows, despite the sharp rise in Panamax rates and Newcastle prices since the Iran conflict began.

Bloomberg Intelligence’s data for both Newcastle and Samarinda suggest exports have remained subdued in recent days, with no cargoes recorded as loading at Samarinda on six of the ten days leading up to March 9. This suggests that recent price and freight moves reflect precautionary buying, logistics disruption or tightening vessel availability, rather than a material increase in coal shipments so far.

Still, given the relatively short voyage times from Australia and Indonesia to Northeast Asia, any sustained shift toward coal could translate into higher loading activity within a few weeks, once procurement decisions filter through the supply chain.

Bloomberg Intelligence further points out that the sharp rise in Panamax freight rates on Indonesian and Australian coal routes – alongside the increase in Newcastle prices to around $135/t from $115/t since the conflict began – suggests utilities are stepping up spot coal procurement as LNG prices surge and gas-to-coal switching economics improve.

Yet sharply higher bunker costs are also adding inertia to the freight market, tightening vessel availability around Indonesian anchorages.

Olsha explains for the freight rally to translate into sustained upward pressure on coal prices, it would need to be accompanied by clear signs of stronger physical demand, such as rising vessel lineups at Indonesian and Australian ports, higher coal imports into key Asian markets and utilities increasing spot coal purchases in response to persistently elevated LNG prices.

Gas-to-coal switching is becoming more affordable in Asia and Europe, Bloomberg Intelligence says.

The disruption to Qatari LNG supply has sharply lifted spot LNG prices and widened regional spreads, raising the incentive for gas-to-coal switching in parts of Asia and Europe.

In practice, the response is likely to be uneven, with price-sensitive South Asian buyers having already begun curtailing gas demand or switching fuels, while North Asian markets such as Japan and Korea typically adjust more gradually owing to contractual LNG supply and operational constraints.

Simultaneously, Asia's need to secure replacement cargoes might pull LNG away from Europe, tightening the Atlantic basin where additional pipeline supply is limited, potentially prompting coal switching there as well.

If the disruption proves short-lived, prices should normalise, but a prolonged outage would increase coal burn across regions.