Freeport-McMoRan has cut its copper sales forecasts for both 2026 and 2027 while reaffirming the phased recovery timetable at its Grasberg operation in Indonesia, even as the company reported higher third-quarter profit and revenue.

Consolidated copper sales are now projected at approximately 3 billion pounds in 2026 and 3.7 billion pounds in 2027, down from July guidance of 3.1 billion and 3.8 billion pounds respectively, Freeport said in its quarterly statement on October 27, 2026.

The 2028 estimate remains unchanged at 4.1 billion pounds.

Chief Financial Officer Maree Robertson attributed the 2026 reduction of about 2% to slightly lower U.S. and Chilean production, and the 2027 revision of about 2.5% to updated mine plans. Extreme weather reduced U.S. operating rates and productivity, while slope management restricted access to higher-grade ore at Chile’s El Abra mine.

Cerro Verde in Peru performed above forecast. Management also cited El Niño-related water limits affecting milling rates.

Grasberg’s phased restart following a deadly September 2025 mudslide remains central to the projected rebound in output. The operation reached 67% of capacity in the third quarter, with mining rates at the Grasberg Block Cave averaging about 70,000 tonnes per day, up from 53,000 tonnes in the second quarter.

Freeport expects the Indonesian operation to reach 80% of capacity by mid-2027 and approach full capacity by year-end. Material-handling upgrades remain on schedule for completion early next year, while preparations for restarting Production Block 1S are advancing toward mid-2027. BMO Capital Markets analyst Katja Jancic described the restart as “progressing well” and said the ramp-up is “increasingly de-risked”.

The guidance cut came alongside stronger financial results. Freeport reported net income attributable to common shareholders of **$1.17 billion**, or **81 cents per diluted share**, compared with $674 million, or 46 cents, a year earlier. Revenue rose 8% to $7.55 billion, beating consensus estimates.

Adjusted earnings were $1.28 billion**, or **88 cents per share**, ahead of the consensus estimate of 80 cents. Operating cash flow rose to **$1.98 billion from $1.69 billion.

The gains came despite copper sales falling to 749 million pounds from 977 million pounds a year earlier, as inventories accounted for much of the gap between production and sales. Quarterly copper production was 832 million pounds. Freeport’s realised copper price rose to **$6.54 per pound** from $4.68. The company still expects about 100 million pounds of copper to remain in Indonesian smelter inventory at year-end, a deferral already included in July’s outlook.

Third-quarter unit net cash costs were **$2.07 per pound** of copper, against $1.40 a year earlier, after by-product credits and excluding idle-facility, direct recovery and restoration costs. Freeport recorded **$244 million** of those excluded costs during the quarter. Management said the roughly $240 million in quarterly idle costs are essentially fixed and will move into all-in unit costs from 2027, with rising volumes at Grasberg expected to dilute them.

Capital spending is now expected to reach $4.4 billion in 2026** and **$5.2 billion in 2027, about $400 million above July’s estimate.

President and CEO Kathleen Quirk said copper sales should increase from approximately 3 billion pounds in 2026 to 3.7 billion pounds in 2027 and exceed 4 billion pounds in 2028, with 2027 growth exceeding 20%. Fourth-quarter copper sales are expected to reach 875 million pounds, making it the strongest quarter of 2026.

Quirk also highlighted proprietary leaching additives as a significant opportunity to recover copper from previously uneconomic stockpiles. Laboratory testing showed recoveries more than four times those of initial formulations, and the company targets about 300 million pounds of incremental annual copper production from leaching in 2027, up from a current run rate of about 220 million pounds.

Freeport expects to decide on the proposed Bagdad expansion in Arizona in the fourth quarter of 2026. The project carries an estimated $4.5 billion capital requirement and would take about three and a half years to build, potentially adding 200 million to 250 million pounds of annual copper production and 10 million to 12 million pounds of molybdenum.

Freeport’s trimmed guidance reflects the combined impact of operational disruptions in the U.S. and Chile, updated mine plans, and the lingering effects of the Grasberg mudslide. But the company’s core growth narrative remains intact: Grasberg is recovering, volumes are projected to rise sharply through 2028, and higher realised prices are supporting profitability even as costs climb.

The key tests ahead are whether the Grasberg ramp-up stays on schedule, whether the Bagdad expansion proceeds, and whether leaching technology delivers the incremental pounds that could help offset the guidance cuts.