The Dangote Refinery, Africa's largest refinery, is reportedly looking into exporting most of its products, a development that could potentially precipitate a significant energy crisis within Nigeria.

The refinery, per sources close to the development, is considering the exportation overhaul owing to the supposed plans by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to resume issuing import licences to oil dealers in the country. However, the petroleum regulator has consistently denied any such plans.

"Those that were issued towards the end of last year were still being used. A licence for importation is not like taking money to the supermarket to buy something off the shelf. It takes time for vessels to arrive. We have not issued any import licence this year," the NMDPRA stated.

"You can choose to believe whoever you want. We are the regulator, but if you want to believe something different from what we report, you are free to. But I will advise you to stick to our fact sheets, which come out monthly," it added.

A couple of weeks back, reports indicated that Nigeria had suspended gasoline importation licenses to prioritize local production from the Dangote refinery. Major oil firms, including Conoil Plc, MRS Nigeria Plc, and a subsidiary of TotalEnergies SE, which collectively represented approximately 25% of the West African country's gasoline imports in January, had consequently had their licenses revoked.

As a result, local fuel supply in February met 92% of Nigeria's fuel demand, according to an official factsheet on Nigeria's midstream and downstream petroleum operations. The report showed that the total petrol supply in the country decreased from 64.9 million litres per day in January to 39.6 million litres per day in February.

In a recent interview with the Punch newspaper, a senior official at the refinery revealed that the Nigerian government has issued fresh importation licenses, and the refinery is set to respond by exporting all its products.

"Well, since import licences are still being given, we will as well export all our productions," the source, who asked to remain anonymous, disclosed.

Despite being reminded that the NMDPRA has denied issuing any fuel importation license, the anonymous source insisted that they had. "I'm sure that you saw my president's statement that at least six companies have been given import licences. I know for sure that import licences are still being granted," the source insisted.

Speaking further on the subject, the source explained that the supposed move by Dangote to export all his products results from the Nigerian government's unwillingness to protect the interests of indigenous businesses and the people.

"If they know there will be fuel scarcity, why are they giving import licenses when the whole world is trying to protect their local industries? Trump is fighting for the US, and the rest of the world is resisting him to protect their own industries. I know Nigeria cannot afford another energy scarcity, especially at a time when a global scarcity is building up because of the war," the source stated.

In recent weeks, the Dangote refinery has been receiving a surge of supply requests as African governments scramble to secure fuel supplies amid disruptions triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran. The refinery has been approached by South Africa and several other countries to help combat the energy crisis brought on by the Middle Eastern conflict. South Africa is reportedly seeking a standard 12-month supply contract with Nigeria, according to people familiar with the discussions who requested anonymity.

African countries are among the most affected by the conflict. East and Southern Africa are especially vulnerable, with nearly 75% of refined-fuel imports originating from the Middle East. In South Africa, the National Treasury recently cautioned that it has limited ability to protect consumers from rising prices. Global crude oil prices have risen by more than 40%, reaching $100 a barrel, as interruptions in shipping and production spread throughout the continent.

Very recently, the refinery confirmed the sale of 12 cargoes of refined petroleum products, totaling 456,000 tonnes, to five African countries—Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Tanzania, Ghana, and Togo. Sold on a Free on Board (FOB) basis through international traders, the shipments highlight the growing reach of Dangote's distribution channels beyond Nigeria's borders.