In spite of the establishment of the Frontier Exploration Fund (FEF) from which over N450 billion was realised by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) in 2025 alone, Nigeria's oil reserves have declined in at least the last three years, a THISDAY review has shown.

This is coming as the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) on Wednesday announced that the country's crude reserves slumped by 0.74 per cent as of January 2026 to 37.01 billion barrels. For context, in 2025, Nigeria's crude oil reserves stood at 37.28 billion barrels, falling from 37.50 billion barrels in 2024, the NUPRC announced at the time.

At its core, Nigeria's frontier exploration fund was created under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) in 2021 to finance exploration in frontier basins of the country where hydrocarbons are suspected but not yet proven or commercially developed. It was designed to search for new oil and gas deposits in underexplored regions, expand Nigeria's reserves base beyond the traditional Niger Delta and de-risk exploration in difficult or unproven terrains where private investors are usually reluctant to go.

These frontier basins include the Chad Basin, Sokoto Basin, Anambra Basin, Benue Trough, Dahomey Basin, and others. Before President Bola Tinubu stopped its administration by the NUPRC and the NNPC early this year, instructing direct payment to the Federation Account, the law mandated that about 30 per cent of NNPC's profit from oil and gas production-sharing contracts was set aside for this purpose.

But in a media release on Wednesday updating Nigerians about the country's hydrocarbons stock, the commission stated that in keeping with its mandate, it remained committed to improving upstream sector performance. It reiterated its commitment to enhancing the growth of oil and gas reserves and ensuring stable production for shared prosperity via operationalisation of the Petroleum Industry Act, 2021 (PIA), and implementation of the strategic pillars of the commission.

The Chief Executive of the NUPRC, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, while breaking down the numbers, explained that 2P (proven plus probable) crude oil and condensate reserves currently stand at 31.09 billion barrels and 5.92 billion barrels, respectively, amounting to a total of 37.01 billion barrels.

In the same vein, Eyesan explained that 2P Associated Gas (AG) and Non-Associated Gas (NAG) reserves stand at 100.21 Trillion Cubic Feet (TCF) and 114.98 TCF, respectively, resulting in total Gas reserves of 215.19 TCF.

"In view of this, I am pleased to present to you an overview of the nation's oil, condensate, associated gas, and non-associated gas reserves as of January 1st, 2026, as follows: 2P crude oil and condensate reserves stand at 31.09 billion barrels and 5.92 billion barrels, respectively, amounting to a total of 37.01 billion barrels. 2P Associated Gas (AG) and Non-Associated Gas (NAG) reserves stand at 100.21 Trillion Cubic Feet (TCF) and 114.98 TCF, respectively, resulting in total gas reserves of 215.19 TCF," Eyesan explained.

The NUPRC chief executive emphasised that currently, Nigeria's crude oil can serve the nation for the next 59 years while the gas assets can last the next 85 years.

"The reserves life index is 59 years and 85 years for oil and gas, respectively. The reason for the slight change in 1.1.2026 oil and condensate reserves by 0.74 per cent is attributable to production in 2025 and reserves update due to field performance and technical evaluation based on subsurface studies.

"The reason for the increase in 1.1.2026 AG and NAG reserves by 2.21 per cent is largely because the reserves update is based on discoveries and the result of robust reservoir studies," Eyesan stated.

She added: "Consequently, and in furtherance of the provisions of Chapter 1, Part III, Section 7 (g), (i), (j), (k), (m), (q), (r) and other powers enabling me in this respect, I, Mrs. Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, Commission Chief Executive, hereby declare the total oil and condensate reserves of 37.01 Billion Barrels and Total Gas reserves of 215.19 Trillion Cubic Feet as the official national petroleum reserves position as of 1st January 2026."

In February this year, THISDAY reported that the NNPC received over N453.455 billion in the 12 months of 2025 from the FEF, quoting data from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC).